Weather models compared: GFS vs Euro vs ICON

Regions and countries use reference points; choose a place for a local result.

7-day model comparison for London

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Daily values: maximum temperature, total precipitation (including showers and snow water equivalent), maximum wind speed. Dates use the selected city’s time zone. Missing or incomplete days show —; shorter models are never extended.

The min–max band covers available models (other models on individual pages); it is not a confidence interval. “Models disagree” means a daily spread of at least 5°C, 10 mm precipitation or 15 km/h wind, with at least two models. These are comparison guides, not official warnings.

Data: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · ECMWF, NOAA, DWD, Météo-France, JMA. Model output, not an official forecast. Data sources & licences.

Which weather model is most accurate?

No model is best for every city, variable and forecast lead time. This comparison shows agreement, not measured accuracy. Checking accuracy requires past forecasts matched to local observations; close agreement can still be wrong.

GFS vs Euro: how to read the differences

Compare the same day and variable. A wider spread signals different possible outcomes, not a probability range. Treat distant forecasts as trends and check again nearer the day.

Models, resolution and update cycles

  • ECMWF (Euro) · ECMWF · 0.25° (about 25 km) · scheduled every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC). Feed details.
  • GFS · NOAA / NCEP · about 13 km · scheduled every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC). Feed details.
  • ICON · DWD · about 11 km · scheduled every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC). Feed details.
  • ARPEGE · Météo-France · 0.25° (about 25 km) · scheduled every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC). Feed details.
  • JMA GSM · Japan Meteorological Agency · 0.5° (about 55 km) · scheduled every 6 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC). Feed details.

Hourly points may be interpolated from coarser model steps; grid spacing does not mean street-level accuracy.